The Miami Dolphins are facing a significant dilemma regarding Tua Tagovailoa. Over the last two seasons, Tua has emerged as the Dolphins’ most prolific passer since Dan Marino’s retirement in March 2000. Tua topped the NFL in passer rating in 2022, led the league in passing yards, played every snap except for mop-up time in 2023, and earned the title of AFC starting Pro Bowl quarterback.
Tua’s supporters, including the Tuanon group, argue that these achievements make it a clear choice for the Dolphins to sign him to a long-term extension this offseason. However, I believe the Dolphins should still keep their options open when it comes to the quarterback position. Period. There’s no room for debate.
GOOD BUT NOT GOOD ENOUGH
Tua Tagovailoa’s impressive stats, such as leading the league with 4,624 passing yards in the 2023 regular season and boasting a top-notch 105.5 passer rating in 2022, raise questions about their impact on the Miami Dolphins’ overall performance.
While the Dolphins secured playoff berths in the last two seasons and maintained a winning record throughout Tua’s four-year NFL career, the team’s playoff drought persists, making it the longest active streak in the NFL. Despite these accomplishments, doubts linger about whether the Dolphins are ready to contend for a Super Bowl or if they are merely a playoff-worthy team without much potential for further success, akin to the Dallas Cowboys.
The evidence supporting the latter argument is compelling. Over the past two seasons, the Dolphins have struggled against playoff opponents, holding a 3-12 record, which includes two playoff losses. Since Weeks 2 and 3 of the 2022 season when they secured victories against Baltimore and Buffalo, the team’s record against playoff contenders is a discouraging 1-12, with the lone win against the Cowboys on Christmas Eve.
In 2023 alone, the Dolphins posted a 1-6 record against playoff opponents, being outscored 224-113, averaging 32-19 in those games. This performance indicates a struggle to compete at the highest level.
While it’s acknowledged that football is a team sport and losses can’t solely be attributed to Tua, his career record of 32-19 as a starter and statistical success in the past two seasons under head coach Mike McDaniel should also be analyzed within the broader team context.
SOME TROUBLING STATS
Delving deeper into Tua Tagovailoa’s statistics, it becomes evident that not every aspect of his performance revolves around touchdowns and completions.
One notable observation is the significant disparity in Tua’s 2023 numbers based on the quality of the opposition. Against non-playoff teams, Tua demonstrated an impressive 71.7% completion rate, throwing 22 touchdowns, eight interceptions, and boasting a 110.7 passer rating. However, when facing playoff opponents, these numbers took a dip to a 62.8% completion rate, eight touchdowns, seven interceptions, and an 80.2 passer rating.
The ability to come through in clutch situations also raises concerns. Despite encountering six fourth-quarter comeback opportunities, the Dolphins managed to win only two of those games—against the Chargers in the opener and the notable victory against the Cowboys. However, they faltered against the Eagles, in a regular-season game against the Chiefs, the challenging Monday night game against Tennessee, and the crucial battle for the AFC East title against Buffalo in Week 18.
Examining Tua’s performance in a key clutch metric—his passer rating when trailing with less than four minutes remaining in 2023—it stood at 67.8, actually lower than his career average of 68.0 in that category. This shortfall places Tua well below the upper-echelon quarterbacks in the AFC, the very quarterbacks the Dolphins must surpass to achieve their goal of reaching the Super Bowl. Notable examples include Lamar Jackson with a career passer rating of 118.2 in similar situations, Joe Burrow at 107.4, Josh Allen at 98.8, Patrick Mahomes at 88.8, and rookie C.J. Stroud finishing his inaugural season in 2023 with a passer rating of 107.9 in comparable circumstances.
THE BIGGEST QUESTION WITH TUA
Determining Tua Tagovailoa’s ceiling is a subjective assessment, but as of now, it’s unclear if he has reached it. While Tua has shown promise and had notable achievements, such as being in the MVP conversation during a significant portion of the 2023 season, there are areas of concern, especially in performances against top-tier opponents and in clutch situations.
The question for the Miami Dolphins becomes whether they should be content with Tua’s current level or seek more for the future. This is not necessarily about replacing Tua for the sake of change but rather evaluating the team’s potential and aspirations with its current composition.
When GM Chris Grier expresses the goal of having Tua play at a high level for the long term, the definition of “high level” becomes crucial. Tua’s performance in 2023, with MVP consideration, might be seen as playing at a high level, but shortcomings against formidable opponents raise questions about the team’s ultimate goals.
The Dolphins’ recent offseason moves, including acquiring players like Tyreek Hill, Terron Armstead, and Jalen Ramsey, suggest a pursuit of greatness rather than settling for just being good. These acquisitions signal an intention to build a team capable of competing at the highest level, possibly with Super Bowl aspirations.
Ultimately, the decision regarding Tua’s future hinges on the Dolphins’ vision for the team. If they believe Tua can lead them to greatness, they may choose to continue investing in his development. However, if there are doubts about his ability to elevate the team to the desired level, they might explore alternative options to achieve their championship ambitions.
TUA WOULDN’T BE THE FIRST
The idea of not immediately committing to a long-term contract for Tua Tagovailoa is not unprecedented, and historical examples exist to support such a decision. One notable case involves Jay Fiedler, a former Dolphins quarterback who had a solid 35-17 record (.673 winning percentage) with the team. However, despite his success, the Dolphins eventually traded a second-round pick to acquire another quarterback, indicating a willingness to make changes when deemed necessary.
More recent examples include Alex Smith and Jimmy Garoppolo, both of whom had impressive records before their respective teams decided to explore alternative options. Smith had a 41-20 record (.672 winning percentage) with the Kansas City Chiefs in his first four seasons, earning Pro Bowl honors twice. Nevertheless, the Chiefs opted to draft Patrick Mahomes in 2017. Similarly, Garoppolo had a winning percentage of .691 and two seasons with a passer rating higher than 100 with the San Francisco 49ers before the team decided to move on.
These instances highlight that successful records alone may not be sufficient to secure a quarterback’s long-term future with a team, as franchises sometimes prioritize potential and future success over past achievements. The decision to lock in a long-term contract for Tua would likely depend on the Miami Dolphins’ assessment of his ability to lead the team to the next level, considering both his accomplishments and areas that may warrant improvement.
THE BOTTOM LINE
What should be done for the Dolphins?
The Dolphins face a critical decision regarding their quarterback, Tua. There are three potential courses of action: signing Tua to an extension, having him play on the fifth-year option, or exploring a trade if a suitable replacement can be found. The ultimate choice hinges on the Dolphins’ assessment of Tua’s potential to lead them to significant success and whether he can continue to progress. It’s essential to determine if the last two seasons represent Tua’s peak performance or if he can take his game to the next level.
Fortunately, the Dolphins have the flexibility to delay this decision, allowing them to gather more evidence and give Tua another season to demonstrate his capabilities, similar to how they handled Christian Wilkins this year. While extending Tua could potentially provide cap relief for 2024, prioritizing the long-term success of the quarterback position is paramount.
The Dolphins must ensure they make the right choice, as success in the quarterback position is crucial for sustained competitiveness. Rather than settling for playoff appearances, the goal should be to compete at the highest level. The uncertainty surrounding Tua’s ability to elevate the team beyond current achievements necessitates keeping quarterback options open for the Dolphins.
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