The Minnesota Vikings may need to confront their quarterback situation with competition in 2024 if Kirk Cousins departs in free agency — and Trey Lance is being considered as a potential contender for the starting position.
Following the NFL Scouting Combine, Rich Eisen outlined his top-5 rumors, beginning with speculation that Lance, hailing from Marshall, Minnesota, could be a viable option at quarterback for the Vikings, especially since head coach Kevin O’Connell appeared accepting of Cousins’ decision to test free agency.
“Prior to his statement, there were rumblings about Trey Lance, a local talent, potentially being the solution at quarterback for the Minnesota Vikings,” Eisen remarked on his show on March 4.
Drafted third overall by the San Francisco 49ers in 2021, Lance was viewed as their future cornerstone quarterback, securing a four-year, $34.1 million contract.
Lance earned the starting role over Jimmy Garoppolo heading into the 2022 season but suffered a season-ending ankle injury in Week 2. The rise of Brocy Purdy disrupted San Francisco’s plans for Lance, leading to his trade to the Dallas Cowboys in exchange for a fourth-round pick last summer.
“The Cowboys retained him on the roster long enough to receive a bonus, so they’re investing money in him. They acquired him for a fourth-round pick,” Eisen elaborated. “I’m curious if the Vikings might offer a third-round pick, a selection on the second day of the draft. Would they consider making such a move?”
Trey Lance Has Less Experience, is Younger Than Bo Nix
It might be tempting to dismiss Trey Lance as a disappointment, but there’s a reason why the San Francisco 49ers were willing to trade three first-round picks to acquire this quarterback hailing from Minnesota.
Beyond his impressive athleticism, Lance showcased remarkable accuracy and decision-making during his college career, notably evident when he threw 28 touchdowns without a single interception in 16 games during his sophomore year. Although his junior year was abbreviated due to the pandemic, the attention he garnered from NFL scouts prompted him to enter the 2021 draft.
The 49ers took a gamble on Lance, hoping he would be prepared to contribute with their Super Bowl aspirations in mind. However, it became apparent that Lance wasn’t quite ready for the NFL stage.
This is understandable considering Lance’s limited experience, having only 591 pass attempts in his entire career since high school. This figure is substantially fewer than what many NFL quarterbacks attempt in a single season and pales in comparison to the volume of passes thrown by quarterbacks in this year’s draft class.
For instance, Oregon quarterback Bo Nix, who is only two months older than Lance, spent all five years of his college eligibility on the field, attempting 1,936 passes during that time. Nix had nearly five times the exposure to Division I-level talent compared to Lance.
Closing the gap in playing experience will be a significant challenge for Lance, especially as he has slipped to third-string status across the league.
Nevertheless, given a couple of years to gain playing experience, Lance could eventually acclimate to the speed and demands of the NFL game. However, any team considering him would need to exercise patience in nurturing his development.
Trey Lance needs playing time.
There's no pathway for him to get it.
99 HS pass attempts.
318 College pass attempts.
72 NFL preseason attempts
102 NFL regular season attempts.In his ENTIRE FOOTBALL CAREER, he has fewer pass attempts than Geno Smith had just last year.
NFL…
— Sam Monson (@PFF_Sam) August 14, 2023
Vikings’ Best Course of Action at QB Doesn’t Align With Lance
The Vikings could adopt a strategy similar to the 49ers’ quarterback approach this season by fostering a competitive environment. This might involve having a first-round rookie quarterback, a seasoned veteran to serve as a bridge, and a project like Lance, offering the organization both immediate and long-term options.
However, at present, Lance doesn’t align with Minnesota’s long-term plans. Entering the final year of his rookie contract, his fifth-year option comes with a hefty price tag of $22.4 million.
While investing that amount in a proven starter as a bridge quarterback would be justifiable, it doesn’t make financial sense for Lance. Moreover, this decision would need to be made by May, well before Lance could adequately demonstrate his value and benefit from development under Kevin O’Connell.
Should Lance opt for a redshirt year without any playing time, his appeal in the free-agent market would likely diminish, potentially leading the Vikings to secure him on a more budget-friendly extension.
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