The NFL free agency frenzy has been overwhelming, resulting in several signings and trades slipping under the radar. Curtis Samuel’s addition to the Buffalo Bills is one such instance.
The seasoned wide receiver secured a three-year, $24 million contract to reunite with offensive coordinator Joe Brady, who previously held the same position with the Carolina Panthers in 2020 and 2021. Although Brady and Samuel were only together for the 2020 season, it marked a pinnacle in Samuel’s career, boasting a personal best of 77 receptions, 851 yards, and three touchdowns.
For the Bills, acquiring Samuel was imperative. With the departure of Gabe Davis to the Jacksonville Jaguars and limited options in their receiving corps beyond Stefon Diggs and Khalil Shakir, Samuel’s versatile and dynamic skill set makes him a valuable asset. Capable of lining up anywhere on the field, he promises to be a reliable weapon for Josh Allen and the Bills. However, assessing his fit with the team demands a thorough evaluation and grading of the signing.
Grading Bills’ Curtis Samuel signing
Curtis Samuel and Gabe Davis possess distinct skill sets, with Samuel offering a more versatile contribution that could benefit Buffalo in ways Davis couldn’t. This assertion is supported by empirical evidence.
Davis primarily served as a deep threat for the Bills, often relying on Allen to target him downfield. According to playerprofiler.com, his average depth of target stood at 15 yards downfield, ranking him eighth among all wide receivers. In both 2022 and the preceding year, Davis maintained a consistent average depth of target, at 15.2 yards and 13.4 yards, respectively. Evidently, Davis’s proficiency lies predominantly in stretching the field vertically, with deep passes constituting his primary offensive arsenal.
New Jaguars WR Gabe Davis' 2023 #ReceptionPerception profile
– 53.8% success rate vs. man coverage
– 76.3% success rate vs. zone
– 51% success rate vs. press
– All three marks are below the 31st percentileDavis brings value as a vertical X-receiver who can burn downfield and… pic.twitter.com/fqgbjojYxA
— Matt Harmon (@MattHarmon_BYB) March 11, 2024
While Gabe Davis had standout performances, such as his memorable 201-yard, four-touchdown game against the Kansas City Chiefs in the 2021 Divisional Round, his style of play and role within Buffalo’s offense also resulted in inconsistency.
Davis experienced more games where he recorded zero receiving yards (four) than those where he surpassed 100 yards (three). His limited ability to threaten defenses in various ways allowed opponents to neutralize him as a deep threat, consequently diverting additional defensive attention towards Stefon Diggs to prevent him from exploiting matchups.
The addition of Curtis Samuel is expected to alter this dynamic significantly. Davis struggled with a 53.8% success rate against man coverage in 2023, ranking below the 31st percentile in Matt Harmon’s database at Yahoo! Sports. In contrast, Samuel boasted an 88th percentile success rate against man coverage last season. This suggests that Samuel’s versatility and effectiveness against man coverage should provide a more diverse and potent offensive threat for the Bills compared to Davis’s predominantly deep-threat role.
Curtis Samuels success rate vs man coverage was in the 88th percentile based on 3 straight seasons.
This is from @MattHarmon_BYB of Reception Perception, he also notes that Curtis can thrive in many roles, which he will be asked to do here in Buffalo under Joe Brady.
Join me at… pic.twitter.com/U63ZMVWU3l
— Thomas DeLaus (@TheThomasDeLaus) March 14, 2024
Curtis Samuel has the potential to fill the deep-threat role that Gabe Davis previously occupied in the Bills’ offense. Although Samuel wasn’t utilized in that capacity during his time in Washington over the last three seasons, he was deployed as a deep threat during his tenure with the Carolina Panthers. In 2019, Samuel’s average depth of target stood at 14.4 yards, ranking him 18th among wide receivers. He also received 27 deep targets, which was the eighth-most at his position that season.
However, Samuel faced challenges with quarterback play, impacting his performance. During the 2019 season, his target quality rating ranked 101st among wide receivers, with only 62.6% of his targets being deemed catchable. This situation was influenced by a mix of injured Cam Newton, Kyle Allen, and Taylor Heinicke as his quarterbacks. Fortunately, this shouldn’t be a concern with Josh Allen leading the Bills’ offense.
Samuel’s value extends beyond just deep threats; he can also contribute effectively in the short to intermediate passing game. Despite his average depth of target being 6.6 yards in 2023, he still managed to average 1.51 yards per route run. While this figure may not seem outstanding, considering his role and competition for targets, it’s quite commendable. Additionally, Samuel racked up 260 yards after the catch, ranking 39th among all receivers.
Comparing him to Davis, Samuel represents an upgrade for the Bills, and he comes at a more cost-effective price. Davis signed a three-year, $39 million deal with the Jaguars, including $24 million guaranteed. In contrast, Samuel’s contract with the Bills is worth $24 million, potentially reaching $30 million with certain incentives, but with only $15 million guaranteed. This demonstrates astute business by the Bills, securing versatility in their offense at a relative bargain.
In sum, Buffalo significantly bolsters its offensive versatility with the acquisition of Curtis Samuel, securing him at a favorable cost compared to other receivers. The hope is that Samuel’s on-field performance exceeds expectations, translating his potential into tangible success for the Bills.
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