The San Francisco Giants made significant roster changes this offseason, aiming to bolster their offensive lineup with additions like Jung Hoo Lee, Matt Chapman, and Jorge Soler. Despite these acquisitions, manager Bob Melvin’s team still seeks more power, prompting speculation about potentially targeting Toronto Blue Jays’ first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. in a midseason trade.
According to Jim Bowden of The Athletic, Guerrero heading to San Francisco is among his forecasts for the 2024 season, particularly amidst the anticipated chaos of the July 30 trade deadline. Bowden envisions a flurry of activity, including notable first baseman trades like Pete Alonso going to the Cubs, Paul Goldschmidt to the Astros, and Guerrero to the Giants, as he stated on March 25.
Guerrero demonstrated durability by playing over 150 games for the third consecutive year in 2023. However, his performance showed a decline in power for the third straight season since his breakout 2021 campaign, where he hit 48 homers and 111 RBI. Subsequently, his home run and RBI totals decreased to 32 and 97 in 2022, respectively, and further dipped to 26 homers and 94 RBI in 2023.
Guerrero Would Further Transform the Giants’ Lineup
Despite Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s declining numbers in recent seasons, 2024 marks only his age-25 campaign. What sets him apart from potential trade targets like Alonso or Goldschmidt is his contract status, as he is the only one under contract beyond 2024. Guerrero is slated to earn $19.9 million this year and is scheduled for free agency after 2025.
Acquiring the right-handed power hitter would not only be significant for the 2024 Giants but also beneficial for stabilizing the team for the 2025 season. While Lee and Soler are expected to remain in San Francisco, Chapman intends to exercise his opt-out clause to become a free agent next winter. Therefore, having a consistent run producer in the heart of the lineup for more than a half-season would greatly benefit the Giants, even if it means potentially paying a higher price in a trade deal.
Will the Blue Jays End up Being 2024 Trade Deadline Sellers?
The prediction of the Toronto Blue Jays trading Guerrero might come as a surprise, especially considering it’s still before Opening Day. Toronto has made multiple postseason appearances since 2020 and made significant efforts, such as pursuing Shohei Ohtani and Juan Soto during the recent offseason, aiming to elevate their performance in 2024. However, Bowden’s forecast likely stems from another prediction he made in the same article.
Bowden anticipates that Toronto’s manager, John Schneider, will be the first to be fired this season due to the team’s recurring underperformance. He suggests that Schneider would be replaced by Don Mattingly, the current bench coach, on an interim basis. If the Blue Jays find themselves distant from postseason contention by the summer, it could prompt the front office to consider making changes. Should Guerrero rebound and deliver a solid performance at the plate, he could emerge as a prime candidate for a trade.
According to FanGraphs’ ZiPS projections, Guerrero is expected to achieve a .278/.357/.492 triple slash line with 31 homers, 100 RBI, and 89 runs scored across 659 plate appearances in the upcoming season.
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