The Minnesota Twins’ pitching staff is struggling with a home run problem. Through their first 47 games, both starters and relievers have allowed a total of 57 home runs, placing them in the bottom four of the majors. Their 1.24 HR/9 rate also ranks among the bottom four in the league.
Last season, strong pitching helped the Twins secure an AL Central title and their first postseason win in two decades, with a team ERA of 3.87 and a league-leading 1,560 strikeouts. Their 1.20 HR/9 rate was the 13th best in the league, making home runs less of a concern. However, this season has seen a decline, with the team ERA rising to 4.32, ranking 20th in the league.
The home run issue was particularly evident during a seven-game losing streak, where the Twins allowed 10 home runs—the highest in the American League over that period. Two crucial go-ahead home runs against the Cleveland Guardians further highlighted this problem.
Despite these struggles, the Twins’ pitchers have maintained an average exit velocity of 88.8 MPH, ranking 10th in baseball. Several factors contribute to their home run issues, including the construction of their starting rotation. Pitchers like Bailey Ober, Joe Ryan, and Chris Paddack rely heavily on high fastballs, a characteristic of Twins pitching. Minnesota’s pitchers throw strikes in the zone 43.7% of the time, second only to the San Diego Padres, and have an 83.6% zone contact rate, the second-highest in the majors.
Pitchers who frequently throw high fastballs can become prone to giving up home runs, especially when not performing well. The Twins’ 16-degree average launch angle is the third highest in MLB, and their 40.9% fly ball rate contributes to their high home run numbers.
Reducing the use of fastballs might seem like a solution, but it’s not straightforward. The Twins’ starting rotation throws fastballs 43.5% of the time, 23rd in the league, and the entire staff uses fastballs 39.9% of the time. Fastballs remain their most effective pitch, with FanGraphs giving them a plus-10 rating, seventh-best in MLB. However, Minnesota’s pitchers need to increase their velocity, averaging 94.1 MPH on fastballs, which is 20th in the league. Hitters can easily anticipate a 94 MPH fastball, which has led to problems for the Twins. They need to improve their secondary pitches to become more well-rounded, as their sliders, changeups, and curveballs have below-average ratings.
Opposing hitters have capitalized on mistakes, with the Twins ranking in the bottom 10 for meatball rate and meatball swing rate. This has resulted in a league-worst 37% launch angle sweet-spot rate, making them prone to home runs. Issues with secondary pitches force pitchers to rely more on fastballs, which often end up being easy targets for hitters.
Whether these home run issues will persist throughout the season remains to be seen. Lower exit velocities might indicate some bad luck with deep fly balls. Despite being two months into the season, the Twins can make simple adjustments for significant improvements. Louie Varland and Jay Jackson, who are not on the active roster, have allowed 10 home runs in only 39 combined innings, accounting for nearly one-sixth of the team’s total.
Historically, the Twins’ pitching staff has been prone to home runs. In 2022, they allowed 184 home runs, with a 1.20 HR/9 rate ranking 20th in baseball. In 2021, their 1.52 HR/9 rate was the third-worst in the majors. Their approach of attacking the upper part of the strike zone will always result in high home run totals. The goal should be to aim for the league average of 1.0 HR/9.
In 2024, the Twins’ pitching staff has been above average overall, but the high number of home runs remains a significant issue. Improving their secondary pitches to become less one-dimensional is crucial. While reducing home runs won’t completely transform the Twins’ pitching staff, it is a necessary step to get back on track.
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