The 2024 season hasn’t unfolded as the Blue Jays had hoped. After a strong performance over the past four years, with three playoff appearances and a close miss in 2021, they find themselves struggling at 21-26, sitting last in the East and trailing only the Astros, Athletics, Angels, and White Sox in the American League standings.
FanGraphs’ Playoff Odds give them a 17.9% chance of making the postseason, while Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA Standings are slightly more optimistic, placing their odds at 30%. Despite these figures, a sudden winning streak could swiftly alter their outlook. However, as time ticks away, the Blue Jays must confront the reality of navigating a summer unexpectedly out of contention.
Pitcher Kevin Gausman offered a blunt assessment, stating, “If we don’t play well, this team will not be together for much longer.” He acknowledged the uncertain future facing the team, hinting at the potential for significant changes.
In considering their options, the Blue Jays might draw inspiration from the 2023 Cardinals, who chose to trade impending free agents while keeping their core intact for another run in 2024. This strategy involved acquiring younger talent while maintaining roster stability and adding experienced players through signings.
Should the Blue Jays opt for a similar approach, they have several impending free agents to consider, including Yusei Kikuchi, Justin Turner, Kevin Kiermaier, Yimi García, Daniel Vogelbach, Danny Jansen, and Trevor Richards. Each presents varying degrees of trade value and potential impact on the team’s future.
Trading Kikuchi, for instance, could strengthen the team’s rotation for the 2025 season, alongside other established pitchers like Gausman, José Berríos, Chris Bassitt, and Alek Manoah.
However, the team faces broader questions regarding its long-term roster composition. With numerous players becoming free agents after 2025, including stars like Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette, the organization must weigh its options carefully. Speculation has arisen about the possibility of trading Guerrero and Bichette, although any such move would depend on multiple factors, including the team’s performance and the quality of offers received.
Both Bichette and Guerrero have seen fluctuations in their performance this season, raising questions about their trade value. Bichette, in particular, has struggled compared to previous years, while Guerrero’s numbers, though solid, haven’t reached the heights of his breakout 2021 season.
Moreover, the team must consider the public relations implications of trading away two players who have become synonymous with the franchise. While there are promising prospects in Triple-A Buffalo, none match the star power or pedigree of Guerrero and Bichette.
Ultimately, the Blue Jays face a pivotal summer, with decisions on and off the field shaping the future trajectory of the franchise. The choices made in the coming months will have far-reaching consequences, influencing both the immediate and long-term outlook for the team.
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