Reports about Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford’s dissatisfaction with his contract began to emerge in late April, coinciding with the 2024 NFL Draft held from April 25 to April 27. Rams head coach Sean McVay reluctantly confirmed that Stafford was indeed seeking additional contract guarantees.
Stafford has three years and $94 million remaining on the four-year, $160 million contract extension he signed in March 2022. This year, he is earning $31 million, which is fully guaranteed, with a salary cap hit of $49.5 million, the third-largest cap figure in the NFL for 2024.
For 2025, Stafford’s salary is $32 million, including a $27 million base salary (with $10 million becoming fully guaranteed in March) and a $5 million roster bonus guaranteed last March. The total guaranteed amount for 2025 is $15 million. In 2026, he is set to make $31 million, consisting of a $26 million base salary and a $5 million roster bonus due next March 14. None of the 2026 money is currently guaranteed.
The Detroit Lions’ recent extension of Jared Goff—the quarterback McVay replaced by acquiring Stafford—likely exacerbates the situation. Goff’s four-year, $212 million extension makes him the NFL’s second-highest-paid player at $53 million per year and includes $170,611,832 in guarantees, with $113,611,832 fully guaranteed at signing, and an NFL-record $73 million signing bonus. This could have influenced Stafford’s desire for more contract security and additional money.
Speculation arose that Stafford might skip the Rams’ organized team activities (OTAs), which began on Monday, May 20, due to his contract dissatisfaction. However, the two-time Pro Bowl quarterback is participating in the voluntary OTAs. On Tuesday, McVay expressed his preference to handle matters concerning Stafford’s contract privately.
Stafford’s role in his contract unhappiness
Stafford has only himself to blame for his current contract predicament. He likely had enough leverage to demand a higher salary during his 2022 contract extension negotiations, given his costly acquisition from the Lions and the Rams’ Super Bowl win in his first season. The Lions traded Stafford to the Rams for Jared Goff, a 2022 first-round pick, a 2023 first-round pick, and a 2021 third-round pick. However, instead of fully exploiting his leverage, Stafford chose to sign a team-friendly deal that tied him with Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott as the league’s fourth-highest paid player at $40 million per year.
This decision was made despite Aaron Rodgers resetting the quarterback pay scale just days earlier by becoming the NFL’s first $50 million-per-year player. Rodgers’ contract with the Green Bay Packers was effectively $150.815 million over three years, averaging $50,271,667 per year, with record-setting guarantees of $150.665 million in total and $101.515 million fully guaranteed at signing. The Rams likely wouldn’t have resisted if Stafford had demanded to be at the top of the NFL salary hierarchy with a four-year extension averaging $50.5 million per year and similar guarantees.
The quarterback market quickly evolved after Stafford signed. The Cleveland Browns gave Deshaun Watson a fully guaranteed five-year, $230 million deal averaging $46 million per year despite him having four years left on his previous contract. In July 2022, Kyler Murray signed a five-year, $230.5 million extension with the Arizona Cardinals, which could reach $238 million with salary escalators, averaging $46.1 million per year. Russell Wilson then received a five-year, $245 million extension averaging $49 million per year in early September.
The quarterback salary market escalated further in 2023. Jalen Hurts, Lamar Jackson, and Justin Herbert successively topped the salary rankings with contracts averaging $51 million, $52 million, and $52.5 million per year, respectively, before Joe Burrow set the new standard in early September with a five-year, $275 million extension averaging $55 million per year. Burrow’s deal could reach $281.25 million with incentives and includes $219.01 million in guarantees, with $146.51 million fully guaranteed at signing.
Aaron Rodgers fell out of the $50 million-per-year club after taking a substantial pay cut to help the New York Jets build a more competitive roster following his trade from the Packers. He reduced his 2023 and 2024 compensation by $33.765 million to $75.05 million.
Stafford is no longer among the NFL’s top 10 highest-paid players, partly due to Goff’s new contract. He is currently tied for 11th in average yearly salary with New York Giants quarterback Daniel Jones and Prescott. Stafford could drop further down the salary rankings as Jordan Love, Trevor Lawrence, Prescott, and Tua Tagovailoa negotiate new deals with the Packers, Jacksonville Jaguars, Cowboys, and Miami Dolphins, respectively.
The Aaron Donald approach
Typically, NFL teams do not renegotiate contracts with three years remaining. However, the Rams will likely need to address Matthew Stafford’s contract before the 2024 season starts in early September. This wouldn’t be unprecedented for the Rams, given how they handled Aaron Donald’s contract dissatisfaction in 2022.
In a rare move, the Rams essentially tore up Donald’s existing three-year, $55 million contract and replaced it with a three-year, $95 million deal, making him the highest-paid non-quarterback in the NFL at $31,666,667 per year. Instead of extending the contract with additional years, they gave Donald a $40 million raise over the same three years, increasing his 2022 compensation from $14.25 million to $46.25 million and allowing him to earn $60 million over 2022 and 2023 instead of the original $33.25 million.
The Rams could argue that Donald was a unique case due to his status as a generational defensive talent and a three-time NFL Defensive Player of the Year. However, if they decide to approach Stafford’s contract similarly, they wouldn’t make him the league’s highest-paid player by giving him more than $165 million over the remaining years (2024 through 2026) to surpass Joe Burrow’s $55 million per year.
One potential approach could be for the Rams to recognize that Stafford could have been the league’s highest-paid player with a $202 million extension had he negotiated more aggressively. They could add the $42 million difference to his actual $160 million extension. With $94 million remaining on his contract, this adjustment would bring Stafford’s earnings to $136 million over the three years (2024 through 2026).
Stafford’s renegotiated deal might use the cash flow of Jared Goff’s contract as a benchmark. Goff’s deal provides him with $148,611,832 from 2024 through 2026. To match or slightly exceed this, the Rams would need to add about $54.75 million to Stafford’s contract, bringing his total to $148.75 million over those three years.
Reworking Stafford’s contract would likely involve reducing his $49.5 million 2024 cap number by converting part of his $31 million base salary and his raise into a signing bonus. Additionally, Stafford’s compensation for 2024 and 2025 would presumably be fully guaranteed at signing. The renegotiated contract would then average $49,583,333 per year.
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