Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen is seeking a new contract with the Buffalo Sabres, with Devon Levi poised to create a youthful and dynamic goaltending duo for the team in the upcoming season. Luukkonen showcased a breakout performance in the 2023-2024 season, ranking among the top 10 in Goals Saved Above Expected according to Evolving-Hockey. On the other hand, Levi’s season had its ups and downs, but he finished strongly towards the end, boasting a 0.927 save percentage with the AHL’s Rochester Americans.
With his impressive performance at the highest level of competition, Luukkonen is securely positioned as the team’s starting goaltender for the opening game. This also places him in a favorable negotiating position as he approaches restricted free agency.
However, it’s worth noting that it was Levi, not Luukkonen, who began the 2023-2024 season as the team’s starter. At that time, the organization had placed its trust in Levi, considering him the future cornerstone of the team’s goaltending. Despite setbacks in Levi’s performance, the Sabres remained committed, opting to transition to Luukkonen at the start of the new year and allowing Levi additional development time in Rochester.
Luukkonen Contract
As a restricted free agent, Luukkonen remains under the Sabres’ control for the upcoming season. His consistent performance and increased workload in the latter part of the season have undoubtedly added significant value to the team. However, this increased value also raises the potential cost of securing his services.
Recent signings of emerging goalies in Luukkonen’s age bracket, such as Ville Husso, Vitek Vanecek, and Alexandar Georgiev, serve as pertinent examples. These goalies all took on more prominent roles in their final seasons before signing new contracts, with varying levels of success thereafter. It’s crucial for the Sabres to approach negotiations cautiously, mindful not to overcommit based solely on a strong half-season performance. Goalie performance can fluctuate significantly, making large, long-term deals risky investments that could restrict the team’s flexibility.
For instance, Husso secured a three-year deal with an average annual value of $4.75 million but was outperformed by Alex Lyon, who was signed for the league minimum. Vanecek, earning $3.4 million per year, lost his starting position in New Jersey and faced changes in the team’s goaltending dynamics. Similarly, Georgiev, despite a strong 2022-2023 season, struggled this past season with a similar average annual value as Vanecek, highlighting the unpredictability of goalie performance.
Luukkonen vs. Levi
After sitting out the first six games of the season and seeing limited action in December, Luukkonen became a pivotal figure for the team as the season progressed. He ended up playing in 53 out of 82 games, approximately 65% of the total matches, showcasing a consistent presence in the goaltending lineup that was difficult to replicate.
An early look at Luukkonen’s game evaluations reveals a steady improvement over the course of the season. His strongest performances were evident in January and February when he single-handedly kept the struggling Sabres competitive in the playoff race despite their offensive struggles.
In contrast, Levi’s season unfolded differently. While he began decently, Levi’s performance became increasingly erratic during the first half of the season. This provided an opportunity for Luukkonen to assume the starting role while Levi sought to regain his form in the AHL.
However, Levi’s trajectory took a positive turn towards the end of the season, particularly highlighted by standout performances during his March call-up. While Levi displayed flashes of brilliance, his inconsistency remains a factor, giving Luukkonen the edge for now.
Examining “boom” games, defined as grades of “A-” or higher, Levi held a slight advantage over Luukkonen, with a 32% to 21% margin. Although this statistic may vary with a larger dataset, Levi demonstrated a knack for delivering clutch performances in 22 appearances, suggesting his ability to steal crucial wins for his team.
Ideal Scenario
Given the trajectory the Sabres were on entering this previous season, the optimal scenario involves securing Luukkonen to a contract in the $3 million to $4 million bracket, according to Evolving-Hockey’s contract projections, which estimate his value on a two-year deal at $3.955 million. However, the most probable contract, as per projections, is a four-year deal at $5.227 million, a substantial sum considering his relatively short track record of success, particularly with Levi’s contract expiring soon.
The preferred strategy entails utilizing Luukkonen and Levi as a tandem, akin to a “1-A” and “1-B” arrangement, going forward. The Boston Bruins exemplify this approach with their highly effective duo of Linus Ullmark and Jeremy Swayman, whose combined salary falls under $8.5 million. However, impending contract negotiations for Swayman have fueled trade rumors surrounding Ullmark due to the anticipated high cap allocation for the position.
Maintaining Luukkonen’s cap hit below $4 million allows flexibility to compensate Levi should he emerge as the Sabres’ top goaltending option in the 2024-2025 season. While not necessarily straightforward, it’s noteworthy that top backup goalies in the NHL typically earn under $3 million. The concern arises if Luukkonen commands significantly more, potentially forcing the Sabres to make a choice between the two promising talents after the upcoming season.
By managing to keep Luukkonen’s cap hit reasonable, the Sabres would be better positioned to afford Levi while also having financial leeway to enhance other areas of their roster.
