As the 2024 NHL trade deadline neared, speculation arose around Scott Laughton of the Philadelphia Flyers potentially being targeted by the Buffalo Sabres. This speculation gained momentum, with Sportsnet’s Jeff Marek dropping increasingly suggestive hints on platforms like the “32 Thoughts: The Podcast” and his daily radio show. While pondering the Sabres’ interest in Laughton, Marek also brought up Noah Cates as a surprise contender for a trade.
The center situation in Philadelphia presents an intriguing scenario. Morgan Frost began the season as a fringe player, often sitting out as a healthy scratch, but ended up as the Flyers’ primary center by the season’s conclusion. Sean Couturier, who was named captain during the season, saw his role diminish from first-line center to fourth-line and occasional benchwarmer. The acquisition of Ryan Johansen in exchange for Sean Walker didn’t pan out as expected, with Johansen finding himself demoted to the AHL and his NHL future uncertain.
This leaves the Flyers with a group of centers primarily known for their defensive prowess: Laughton, Cates, and Ryan Poehling. With all six centers under contract for the upcoming season, any new additions to the roster in the offseason would likely force one of them out. Considering the team’s composition and salary considerations, Laughton and Cates appear to be the most probable candidates for departure.
Scott Laughton
Laughton brings a noticeable presence to the ice with his physicality, penchant for shooting, involvement in scrums, and ability to draw penalties. Additionally, he demonstrates some playmaking skills, as evidenced by his shot assists. However, despite his attributes, he has struggled in his role as a shutdown center. Analysis suggests he would be better suited as a complementary bottom-six forward.
Unfortunately, Laughton’s performance in the 2023-2024 season has been disappointing. Metrics like Evolving-Hockey’s RAPM chart portray him negatively, showing subpar impacts in various areas such as goals-for, expected goals for and against, and shot attempts for and against. PuckLuck’s new WAR metric ranks him as the worst player on the Flyers per 60 minutes, with below-replacement impacts in even-strength defense, powerplay offense, and shorthanded defense, costing his team approximately three points in the standings based on his usage.
This decline isn’t a one-time occurrence; Laughton has now had three consecutive seasons with negative impacts. Considering this trend, acquiring him through trade would not only require assets from the Sabres but also potentially harm the team’s playoff aspirations.
Noah Cates
Cates excels in a defensive forward role during his deployment, contrasting with Laughton, as he maintains an average shot volume and lacks physicality. Instead, he leverages his keen awareness to fortify the defensive zone and facilitate offensive transitions.
Comparatively, his counterparts in the league undertake more prominent roles within their teams, such as Connor McMichael serving as Washington’s primary center. While Frost boasts greater offensive prowess, he still merits inclusion. Additionally, players like Ilya Mikheyev, Jordan Martinook, and Pius Suter have intermittently provided support to their teams’ top performers.
Cates’ contributions stand in stark contrast to Laughton’s, emerging as the Flyers’ standout player over the past three seasons according to WAR metrics. Notably, his penalty-killing prowess has been exceptional in the last two seasons. While he demonstrates reliability during even-strength play with commendable defensive metrics, his performance on the powerplay has been subpar.
Sabres Fit
The Sabres are in the market for a third-line center. If they prioritize someone capable of facing tough opponents, Cates seems like a suitable candidate for the role. Given that the powerplay positions are already occupied by existing players, there’s no need to shoehorn him into an ill-fitting role.
Instead, Buffalo could unleash Dylan Cozens offensively by relieving him of the duty to face top offensive opponents. Cates could potentially center Jordan Greenway and Zach Benson, forming a formidable forechecking and shutdown line in the NHL.
The cost to acquire the 25-year-old Cates, who has one year remaining on his contract with a $2.625 million cap hit, is uncertain. However, it’s worth noting that he’ll become a restricted free agent after the upcoming season.
While Cates may not be a high-scoring player, tallying only 18 points in 59 games last season, it’s reasonable to initiate discussions with a “B” level prospect as a starting point for negotiations. After all, Cates himself was a fifth-round draft pick.
Revisiting the conversation with Flyers general manager Daniel Briere to discuss the possibility of acquiring a center would be a wise move for the Sabres. If successful, targeting Cates could be a fruitful option.
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