The St. Louis Cardinals are currently two games below .500 but are tied for a Wild Card spot. With less than two months until the trade deadline, they have the option to either buy or sell. If they decide to sell, Paul Goldschmidt might be a key player on the move.
Goldschmidt, who is two seasons removed from an MVP campaign where he hit 35 home runs and led the league in OPS (.981) and OPS+ (177), has not been performing up to those standards this season. According to Kerry Miller of Bleacher Report, despite his underwhelming stats this year, Goldschmidt could still be one of the most sought-after players at the deadline.
At 36 years old, Goldschmidt is currently hitting .222 with only 7 home runs in 56 games. His on-base and slugging percentages are on track to be the worst of his career if the season ended today.
However, this doesn’t tell the full story. Over his last 19 games, Goldschmidt has shown improvement, hitting .279 with 5 of his 7 home runs coming during this period. His batting average on balls in play during this stretch is .347. Correspondingly, the Cardinals have a 13-6 record in these games.
Despite this resurgence, Miller notes that Baseball Reference still gives the Cardinals only a 4.3% chance of making the playoffs. Fangraphs is more optimistic but still pegs their postseason chances at less than one-third.
One issue is the unclear National League Wild Card race at this point in the season. With around 60 games played, no NL team is more than 8 games out of a playoff spot, and only two are more than 4 games out. The next six weeks will bring more clarity, and if the Cardinals choose to sell, a half-season rental of Goldschmidt could be appealing to teams needing an additional bat.
Paul Goldschmidt’s Contract with the Cardinals
Goldschmidt signed a five-year, $130 million contract with the Cardinals before the 2020 season, which is set to expire this year. For 2024, he is earning $26 million, representing just under 11% of the Cardinals’ luxury tax threshold.
His contract also includes several incentives, though achieving the major ones, such as a $250,000 All-Star bonus, seems unlikely unless he maintains his recent improvement.
At his age, Goldschmidt isn’t positioning himself for a long-term deal. However, if he is traded and performs well with his new team, he could still secure a respectable payday in the offseason.
Potential Trade Suitors
Bleacher Report’s Tim Kelly speculated on potential teams interested in Goldschmidt earlier this season, while the first baseman was still struggling. He mentioned the Cleveland Guardians, New York Yankees, Texas Rangers, and Minnesota Twins as possible suitors, also noting that lower-budget teams might consider him as a rental.
Since then, the Guardians have called up Kyle Manzardo, which likely removes them from contention. The Rangers remain an intriguing option, especially with Bruce Bochy starting to bench lefty Nathaniel Lowe against left-handed pitchers. Goldschmidt, who has a .323 average against southpaws, could be a valuable addition for them.
Kelly also suggested that even if the Cardinals are not in contention, they might still want to retain Goldschmidt. “He won NL MVP with them and has spent six years in St. Louis after an eight-year run with the Arizona Diamondbacks,” Kelly said. “He has a strong Hall of Fame case, and the Cardinals might want to ensure he is seen as much a Cardinal as a Diamondback if he enters Cooperstown.”
