Pittsburgh Pirates rookie Paul Skenes is set to take the mound again this weekend, and if his first seven outings in the MLB are any indication, it promises to be must-watch television. Since his call-up in mid-May, Skenes has been impeccable, compiling a 4-0 record. He has showcased not only his impressive four-seam fastball but also a diverse repertoire of pitches, including his effective split/sinker known as a “splinker.” His stats speak for themselves: a 2.29 ERA, a 0.992 WHIP, and an impressive 53 strikeouts with just seven walks over 39.1 innings pitched.
Skenes, drafted first overall out of LSU last July at the age of 22, has quickly proven himself as a standout talent, resembling an ace on the mound.
However, the question that often arises with promising young talents on small-market teams like the Pirates is whether they can afford to retain him and at what cost. Skenes could follow the standard path of six seasons through pre-arbitration and arbitration, or the Pirates might opt for an early extension offer to secure his services long-term.
For a pitcher of Skenes’ caliber and performance level, any potential contract offer would need to be substantial—potentially setting records in the process.
Paul Skenes Is Baseball’s Top Prospect
According to Spotrac analysts, based on Paul Skenes’ early performance, they project that the Pirates may need to offer a contract similar to what Spencer Strider received from the Braves last year—six years, $73 million ($92 million with a team option)—but potentially double that amount.
In fact, Spotrac’s Mike Ginnitti suggests that an early extension for Skenes could command a contract as substantial as six years and $150 million. This proposal would significantly exceed previous pre-arbitration contract records in baseball.
Dan Soemann, an MLB contracts expert at Spotrac, discussed on “The Spotrac Podcast” that he sees the potential contract for Skenes landing somewhere between $120 million and $150 million over four years, which would set new benchmarks in baseball salary negotiations.
Skenes’ performance has been exceptional, recently earning him the top spot on Baseball America’s prospects list. They noted, “Skenes has performed like a top-tier starting pitcher since his MLB debut. In one notable outing against the Cubs, he held them hitless for six innings and struck out 11. He quickly became known for his high-velocity pitches, and has continuously refined his skills and expanded his pitching repertoire. Remarkably, he now relies heavily on his splinker pitch, a weapon he did not use during his time at LSU.”
Pirates Will Have 6 Years of Control
Signing Skenes to an early contract would likely require a groundbreaking deal. He stands to benefit from going through the arbitration process, where his performance could establish him as one of the top pitchers in the game, leading to substantial rewards.
Nevertheless, there’s no immediate concern about the Pirates losing Skenes or needing to trade him soon. Pittsburgh holds contractual rights over Skenes for the next six years.
According to Dan Soemann of Spotrac, part of Pittsburgh’s strategy in drafting Skenes was anticipating the potential for him to become a premier ace, a top-five pitcher in the league, which typically commands a high salary. “This path would come at a fraction of that cost,” Soemann noted. “Having six years of Paul Skenes as he is would be quite satisfactory for the Pirates. While they would be keen on securing an extension, it would likely require a historic, record-setting offer.”
The Pirates may consider buying out Skenes’ arbitration years to achieve financial predictability, but Skenes may not find sufficient motivation to agree to such terms. “If the team proposes a historic contract during the pre-arbitration period, there could be added value in waiting four years and reassessing the financial landscape at that time,” Soemann explained. “However, locking in a record-breaking pre-arb extension could still be an option worth considering.”
