BREAKING NEWS: The Phillies Lock up Another Part of Their League-Best Rotation

Heading into last year, the Phillies were grappling with significant uncertainty about their pitching rotation. Aaron Nola was nearing free agency, Zack Wheeler’s contract would expire a year later, and Taijuan Walker was the sole pitcher locked in beyond 2024. Fast forward to now, the Phillies lead the league in WAR once more thanks to their rotation, but much of their previous worries have eased. During the offseason, they re-signed Nola and extended Wheeler, and they’ve now secured left-hander Cristopher Sánchez, a standout since 2023, for at least four additional years with two club options potentially extending his stay through 2030.

Sánchez, 27, acquired from the Tampa Bay Rays in 2019 for Curtis Mead, has maintained a stellar performance with a 2.67 ERA and 2.49 FIP over 15 starts this season. His 2.6 WAR ranks fourth among National League pitchers. The Phillies’ commitment to Sánchez includes a guaranteed $22.5 million over the next four seasons plus a $2 million signing bonus, covering all arbitration years. Initially overlooked due to command issues and early struggles in Triple-A after a COVID layoff, Sánchez has emerged unexpectedly, notching significant achievements despite doubts about his future.

Looking back, the Phillies initially planned just a single spot start for Sánchez in April 2023, but his effectiveness and development of his changeup—described as resembling a controlled forkball—secured him a regular role. Even with subsequent additions to the roster, including Michael Lorenzen, the Phillies opted for a six-man rotation rather than exclude Sánchez, underscoring his rapid rise and integral role in their plans.

As of now, Sánchez’s performance validates his earlier success, having thrown over 175 innings with 157 strikeouts and a 3.08 ERA across 31 starts in the past year. While projections like ZiPS weren’t optimistic about him entering 2023, his consistent performance and evolving skills have solidified his place as a key asset in Philadelphia’s formidable rotation.

Here’s a paraphrase of the provided text:

“That’s not a catastrophe; with those statistics, he could have been a capable fill-in starter or long reliever. However, it pales in comparison to his achievements over the past year. So, let’s focus on his current, much brighter outlook. How optimistic? Let’s just say his projections now include Tom Glavine in the top 10 of similar pitchers, and leave it at that.

Most teams would be thrilled to have this kind of projection from their second-best starter. From their fourth-best, it’s like waking up to find your garden hose magically makes its own craft beer. Based on these figures, ZiPS forecasts Sánchez to be worth $27.3 million over the four-year extension, which appears to be a solid value for the Phillies. The deal looks even better when you consider the option years; ZiPS predicts Sánchez’s value for 2029 and ’30 to total $41 million in free agency, which is $11 million more than the base value if the Phillies exercise his options.

This leaves Ranger Suárez as potentially the only key rotation member not locked in long term. He becomes a free agent after the 2025 season, and given his outstanding performance this year, an extension could be costly—ZiPS estimates a six-year deal would cost the Phillies $135 million. Having Sánchez under contract until the end of the decade at such a favorable rate could provide Philadelphia with flexibility to allocate more funds toward retaining Suárez.

Before we finish, I’ve been eager to project the Phillies’ rotation, so I won’t miss this opportunity! Based on our depth charts’ innings allocation, ZiPS currently forecasts Phillies starting pitchers to contribute 8.6 more WAR over the remainder of the season, potentially totaling 22.7 WAR for the entire 2024 campaign. Here’s how that compares to the strongest starting staffs in the five-man rotation era, starting roughly in 1980.”