After winning the 2023 American League Cy Young Award, 33-year-old Gerrit Cole was expected to lead the Yankees’ rotation this season. However, that hasn’t been the case. Instead, rookie Luis Gil has emerged as the Yankees’ breakout star. Ironically, Gil got his opportunity in the rotation after Cole was injured in March, and he seized it. By June, Gil was a strong contender in the Cy Young race, and although his performance has cooled slightly, he’s remained solid.
While Gil may no longer be a top Cy Young candidate, he still has a realistic chance of winning AL Rookie of the Year. Not only has he been a pleasant surprise, but he’s also been the Yankees’ most dependable pitcher in 2024.
Luis Gil’s Breakout Season
More Than a Rookie
In the race for AL Rookie of the Year, the competition has narrowed to three contenders: Luis Gil, Baltimore Orioles outfielder Colton Cowser, and fellow Yankee Austin Wells. Cowser is currently the frontrunner, boasting a .247/.325/.447 batting line with 18 home runs and impressive defensive skills, making him the one to beat for the award.
While Gil might not finish strong enough to overtake Cowser, his rookie season has been invaluable to the Yankees. With an ERA of 3.25—the lowest among Yankees starters who have pitched at least 120 innings—and a 3.1 bWAR, more than double that of second-place Nestor Cortes (1.4), Gil’s contributions have been outstanding. He also has 12 wins, just one shy of Carlos Rodon’s team-leading 13.
Gil’s numbers may not be extraordinary, but he has been invaluable as a reliable starter in a season where New York’s starting pitching has been notably inconsistent.
But Can He Pull It Off?
Just because Gil doesn’t need to win Rookie of the Year to prove his value doesn’t mean it wouldn’t be a nice accolade. If he can finish August on a high note and have a strong September, the award could still be within reach.
Take a look at May, which was by far his most impressive month. Over 38 2/3 innings, Gil struck out 44 batters while posting a remarkable 0.70 ERA and a 6-0 record. This incredible stretch earned him the AL Pitcher of the Month honors for May. While replicating that performance might be a tall order, his second-best month, July, shows his potential.
After a rough June, Gil bounced back in July, which was especially crucial given New York’s struggles as a team. In five starts, he recorded a 3.33 ERA over 27 innings, striking out 33 batters and significantly reducing his walks—issuing only eight. It’s realistic to expect that Gil could put up similar numbers down the stretch, especially with the Yankees facing a relatively weak lineup of offenses in their remaining schedule.
Luis Gil, Wicked 89mph Slider. 🤢 pic.twitter.com/O3RN65r9kF
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) August 13, 2024
Even if Gil finishes the season stronger than Cowser, he still has to contend with his own catcher in the Rookie of the Year race. According to Fangraphs, Gil’s 2.4 fWAR slightly trails both Cowser and Austin Wells, who are tied with an fWAR of 3.0.
Wells, who has appeared in just 84 games, has unexpectedly surged into the ROY conversation. As the Yankees’ starting catcher, he’s already established himself as one of the better defensive catchers in the league. Additionally, his sustained hitting streak over the past few months has elevated him to the ranks of top catchers in the AL.
Nevertheless, Cowser remains the odds-on favorite. While there’s always a chance that Gil could have another standout month, it seems unlikely as hitters appear to be adjusting to him.
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