He’s back. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is once again channeling his 2021 form for the Toronto Blue Jays.
In 2021, Guerrero posted impressive stats, finishing second in American League MVP voting behind Shohei Ohtani. That year, he boasted a .311/.401/.601 slash line with 48 home runs, 123 runs scored, and 111 RBIs. He also had 29 doubles, one triple, and 86 walks, while only striking out 110 times.
This season, Guerrero is hitting .328/.400/.564 with 28 home runs, 40 doubles, and one triple. He’s driven in 92 runs and scored 85, with his strikeout and walk rates similar to those in 2021, though he’s striking out and walking slightly less.
The primary difference is a trade-off between home runs and doubles, but Guerrero is still having an exceptional year. This performance should reassure the Blue Jays’ management that he remains among baseball’s elite hitters, reaffirming his MVP-caliber status.
While Guerrero’s 2022 and 2023 seasons were solid—with OPS+ values of 133 and 116 respectively—they didn’t match his 167 OPS+ in 2021 or his 170 OPS+ this year. Remember, a 100 OPS+ represents league average; Guerrero’s 170 OPS+ indicates he’s 70% better than the average player, adjusted for park factors.
The main challenge in contract negotiations has been defining Guerrero’s value. Is he the MVP contender of 2021, or a strong but less elite player? This impacts the contract terms and price point.
Guerrero seeks compensation reflecting his 2021 performance, while the team may have considered his 2022 output as a benchmark for future contracts. However, this standout season has made it evident that Guerrero should be viewed as an MVP-caliber player.
With just one more year of control before he becomes a free agent, the Blue Jays have an opportunity to finalize a deal now that both parties have a clearer understanding of Guerrero’s value. Previously, the disparity in evaluations would have led to offers falling short of Guerrero’s expectations, but this season has narrowed that gap.
There are indications that shortstop Bo Bichette might seek to leave Toronto after the 2025 season. Even if this isn’t the case, the Blue Jays and Bichette’s representatives may have differing views on his value, given his disappointing season.
With potentially no Bichette in the picture, the Blue Jays need to secure Guerrero long-term. He is crucial for the team’s future lineup, and Guerrero is now in a strong position to negotiate with Ross Atkins and Mark Shapiro.
The challenge with long-term, high-value contracts often lies more in the length than the total dollars. Agents aim to secure more years than teams prefer.
Guerrero will likely seek a deal starting around age 26 and extending through at least his age-35 season. If I were his agent, I’d target a 13-year contract, keeping him with the Blue Jays until age 38.
A relevant comparison is Matt Olson’s contract with the Atlanta Braves from March 2022, which was an eight-year deal worth $168 million, with a team option that could extend it to nine years and $188 million. Olson was 28 at the time, while Guerrero is two years younger. Guerrero’s superior hitting ability and younger age suggest he might command a larger deal.
Atkins and the Jays will prefer a shorter contract term. They probably have a sense of Guerrero’s agent’s expectations from prior discussions. The agent will have insight into the Jays’ position as well.
To start negotiations, I’d offer 10 years and $270 million. This would make Guerrero the highest-paid player in franchise history and align his annual salary with that of elite players like Freddie Freeman, recognizing the market shift over the past two years. This offer would cover him until age 35, similar to Olson’s deal.
I’d anticipate Guerrero’s camp might reject this initial offer, possibly demanding something closer to a 13-year deal at $30 million per year, creating a $120 million gap. They might reference contracts like Manny Machado’s or Bryce Harper’s.
Although the gap seems significant, it can be bridged. I’d be willing to compromise on the term but not the annual value. An adjusted offer could be 11 years at $27 million per year.
Guerrero’s representatives might appreciate the additional year but push for a higher AAV. After some negotiation, a 12-year deal for $324 million could be the final agreement.
Securing Guerrero now is crucial for the Jays, providing clarity for the 2025 season and beyond, both financially and roster-wise. It’s time to finalize the deal.
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