The Denver Broncos‘ 10-7 record and return to the playoffs marked a welcome end to an eight-year postseason drought. Rookie quarterback Bo Nix made an impressive debut, completing 66.3% of his passes for 3,775 yards, 29 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions. The defense also excelled, leading the NFL with 63 sacks.
Despite this, their 31-7 loss to the Buffalo Bills in the wild-card round highlighted the gap between the Broncos and the top AFC teams. Coach Sean Payton acknowledged this after the game, saying, “We need to have a good offseason.”
Looking to the future, the Broncos face several key questions.
How should we assess the Broncos’ 2024 season, and what was the biggest surprise?
Ending their playoff drought made the season feel like a success. After a tough 0-2 start, the Broncos rebounded by winning nine of their next 12 games, needing just one win in their final three to secure a playoff spot.
They did just that, reaching the postseason for the first time since their Super Bowl 50 win in 2015. They finished well above ESPN’s preseason prediction of 6.6 wins.
However, the Broncos struggled against top teams. Only two of their 10 wins came against playoff teams, with one being a Week 18 victory over a Chiefs squad resting their starters for the playoffs. The other playoff win came against the NFC South champion Buccaneers in Week 3.
Digging deeper, six of the Broncos’ 10 victories were against teams ranked in the bottom 10 of the league. They also struggled against elite AFC quarterbacks, finishing 0-6 (including playoffs) against Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert, and Josh Allen. Nevertheless, the team did manage to win the games they were expected to.
The biggest surprise was Payton’s inability to establish a consistent run game, despite his experience as a playcaller. According to NFL Next Gen Stats, the Broncos ranked 24th in rushing yards over expected per play (-0.06) and struggled to find a dependable running back.
Five different players led the team in rushing yards during different games, with top back Javonte Williams finishing with just 513 yards. As a result, Nix had to throw the ball more, finishing sixth in the NFL with 567 pass attempts, surpassing quarterbacks like Herbert, Allen, and Jackson. Payton often mentioned that a solid run game would benefit Nix, but it never came to fruition.
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