Texas Rangers: The AL’s Biggest Boom-or-Bust Team in 2025?
As we gear up for the 2025 season, no team in Major League Baseball carries as much unpredictability as the Texas Rangers. They could finish with the best record in the American League—or collapse into another sub-.500 disaster like last season. Their lineup is deep and powerful, but their fate largely hinges on a fragile rotation, headlined by an elite but injury-prone ace. FanGraphs splits the difference, predicting improvement but not dominance.
The Rotation: A House of Cards?
The Rangers’ pitching staff is the ultimate wildcard, and everything starts with Jacob deGrom. When healthy, he’s arguably the best pitcher in the world. But that’s the problem—he’s rarely healthy. Since 2021, deGrom has managed just 35 starts. His latest setback, a second Tommy John surgery in June 2023, kept him out for nearly two full seasons. He returned for a brief September stint, flashing his elite form with a 97.3 mph fastball and a 14:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio over 10.2 innings. Now 37, deGrom enters 2025 as the Rangers’ ultimate boom-or-bust player. Projections vary wildly—Steamer has him throwing 152 innings with a 2.88 ERA, while ZiPS is far more pessimistic at just 52.2 innings.
If (or when) deGrom goes down, Texas is relying on unproven arms to step up. Kumar Rocker, the former Vanderbilt star, showed flashes of brilliance last season with a 1.74 ERA and a wipeout slider that produced a 66% swing-and-miss rate. His former college teammate, Jack Leiter, has been a disaster so far. He posted an 8.83 ERA in nine MLB appearances and has fallen off most top prospect lists. Even if Leiter struggles, the Rangers have another promising young arm in Alejandro Rosario, who dominated Double-A with a 2.24 ERA and a 36.9% strikeout rate.
To stabilize the rotation, Texas will lean on veterans Nathan Eovaldi (3.99 projected ERA), Jon Gray (4.35), and Tyler Mahle (4.29). Eovaldi, fresh off a new three-year, $75 million deal, has been the most reliable of the bunch.
The Lineup: Explosive but Unproven
Offensively, the Rangers boast a mix of battle-tested veterans and high-upside youngsters. Last season, their lineup ranked just 22nd in fWAR, but they made key moves to add power, signing Joc Pederson (151 wRC+ in 2024) and trading for Jake Burger (106 wRC+). The core still revolves around shortstop Corey Seager, who posted a 145 OPS+ and 5.0 rWAR last season. However, second baseman Marcus Semien showed signs of decline, finishing with a league-average 99 wRC+. Right fielder Adolis García also took a shocking nosedive, producing -0.2 fWAR after a heroic 2023 postseason.
Then there’s Wyatt Langford, the highly-touted outfielder who struggled for much of his rookie season before catching fire in September (.300/.386/.610, 8 HR). He finished with a solid 2.9 fWAR and is projected to make a huge leap to 4.2 fWAR in 2025. His outfield counterpart, Evan Carter, was a postseason star in 2023 but fell apart last year (.188/.272/.361 in 45 games) before landing on the injured list. The Rangers believe his back issues are behind him, but they’ll keep a close eye on his health.
The Bullpen: A Rebuilt Question Mark
Texas overhauled its bullpen after ranking 25th in WAR last season. Closer Kirby Yates bolted for the Dodgers, while José Leclerc and David Robertson are gone as well. In response, the Rangers added veterans like Chris Martin, Jacob Webb, Hoby Milner, Robert Garcia, and Shawn Armstrong. Martin, 38, is the likely closer, but this group isn’t expected to be a strength.
A Playoff Threat or Another Disappointment?
The Rangers have the talent to be a top AL team—if their pitching holds up. PECOTA is bullish, giving them the highest projected win total (90) and best World Series odds (8.8%) in the AL. If their young players break out and deGrom stays healthy, they could be a nightmare for teams like the Yankees and Orioles. But if the rotation crumbles, Texas could be looking at another wasted season.
Boom or bust? The Rangers are about to find out.
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