Great expectations surround Alabama football, especially following Nick Saban’s remarkable tenure that yielded six national titles in 17 years at Tuscaloosa. Kalen DeBoer now steps into a vastly different era, marked by the presence of the transfer portal, NIL, an expanded SEC, and numerous other changes.

The landscape also includes a 12-team College Football Playoff. The bar for DeBoer includes consistently strong performances in the CFP. Assessing whether such expectations are reasonable for a first-year head coach, it’s worth noting that, under the current ruleset, nine coaches would have already achieved this if prior CFPs had expanded to 12 teams.

DeBoer himself came close in 2022 at Washington, where his Huskies, ranked No. 12 in the final CFP standings, would have narrowly missed the final playoff spot, losing out to Tulane.

As DeBoer navigates the initial phases of his Alabama tenure, it’s insightful to examine which first-year head coaches would have secured a spot in a 12-team playoff during the CFP era.

2014

Bryan Harsin– Boise State

Before his less-than-successful two-year stint at Auburn, Harsin served as the head coach for the Broncos. He assumed the role in 2014 following Chris Peterson’s departure to take the head coaching position at Washington.

Under the current structure of the 12-team playoff, the highest-ranking champion from the Group of 5 conferences would secure a spot. In Harsin’s inaugural season, the Broncos, finishing as Mountain West champions and Fiesta Bowl winners, would have claimed that coveted position.

Interestingly, the team ranked No. 12 in the CFP standings that year was Georgia Tech. Despite the Broncos initially being placed at No. 20 in the final top 25, they would have received the boost needed to enter the 12-team playoff field.

2015

Tom Herman– Houston

In his inaugural year, Tom Herman, assuming the role after Tony Levine’s dismissal, would have secured a spot in the 12-team playoff as the representative from the Group of 5. Taking charge of the Cougars, Herman led them to a remarkable 12-1 record, clinching the American Athletic Conference championship and ultimately triumphing in the Peach Bowl against Florida State.

Despite being initially ranked No. 18 in the final playoff standings, the Cougars would have surpassed Ole Miss to claim the final spot in the 12-team playoff. Herman’s impactful first season with Houston would have placed the team in contention for a larger playoff format.

2016

Clay Helton– Southern Cal

If a 12-team playoff format had been in place at the beginning of Helton’s tenure in Los Angeles, his start with USC would have been notably promising. While it was technically his first complete season at USC, taking over from the fired Steve Sarkisian during the 2015 campaign, Helton guided the Trojans to a strong 9-3 record in the final CFP rankings of 2016, securing the No. 9 spot.

Helton, who is currently the head coach at Georgia Southern, and his team concluded the season with a remarkable Rose Bowl victory over Penn State, showcasing a strong performance that would have positioned them well in a 12-team playoff scenario.

2017

Lincoln Riley– Oklahoma

In 2017, Lincoln Riley assumed the helm of a football program that was already established as a powerhouse. Following Bob Stoops’ retirement, Riley was promoted to head coach, inheriting a squad that had finished No. 7 in the 2016 College Football Playoff (CFP) rankings.

In his first season as head coach, Riley led the Sooners to secure a spot in the four-team playoff as the No. 2 seed in 2017. Their journey in the playoffs saw them compete in a memorable Rose Bowl against Georgia, a game that extended to two overtimes. Despite the loss in the Rose Bowl, the Bulldogs, who emerged victorious in that game, ultimately fell to Alabama in the national title game.

2018

Dan Mullen– Florida

Upon returning to the school where he had previously served as the offensive coordinator during the height of Urban Meyer’s tenure, Dan Mullen took over the head coaching position at Florida after a successful stint at Mississippi State.

In the 2018 season, the Gators secured a third-place finish in the SEC East, experiencing late-season losses to Georgia and Missouri. Despite this, in a hypothetical 12-team playoff scenario, the Gators would have earned a spot, being ranked as the tenth team in the College Football Playoff (CFP) top 25.

Mullen’s first season in charge concluded with a Peach Bowl victory over Michigan, showcasing a successful start to his tenure at Florida.

2019

Ryan Day– Ohio State

Upon assuming the coaching responsibilities in Columbus after Urban Meyer, Ryan Day didn’t require an expanded playoff scenario to secure a spot in the field. The Buckeyes, under Day’s leadership, claimed the No. 2 seed after clinching the Big Ten championship.

This playoff appearance marked Ohio State’s first since 2014 when the team emerged victorious in the national championship. However, their journey in the playoffs faced a formidable challenge as they had to contend with Clemson in the semifinals.

Ultimately, Ohio State fell to Clemson in the Fiesta Bowl. Clemson, in turn, advanced to the title game but was defeated by LSU in the championship matchup.

2022

Sonny Dykes– TCU

After a two-year hiatus without any first-year head coaches earning a College Football Playoff (CFP) berth in a hypothetical 12-team field, 2022 would have featured two making it. Dykes, however, did not need the expansion to make an impact, as the Horned Frogs had a significant title game run in reality.

Interestingly, in a 12-team playoff scenario, TCU might have faced some challenges. The top four teams receiving byes are required to be conference champions, and TCU, having lost the Big 12 title game to Kansas State, would have been affected by this rule.

In reality, Dykes and his team secured a notable victory over Michigan in the semifinal round. Nevertheless, they fell short in the national championship game against Georgia, concluding their impressive season.

Southern Cal– Lincoln Riley