The 2024 Cubs had a strong start to the season with a 17-10 record and a +20 run differential in the first month, establishing themselves as contenders in the National League Central. However, their performance has declined recently, with a 12-19 record over the past month and a half, and they’ve been outscored by 25 runs in the last 31 games. This slump has put them six games behind the Brewers, who lead the division comfortably.
Despite their struggles, the Cubs, like many other non-division leaders in the National League, are still in the playoff race due to the overall mediocrity in the league this year. Only four NL teams have winning records more than a third of the way through the season. The Cubs’ 30-31 record places them just ahead for the third NL wild-card spot, whereas a 33-27 record is needed for the top wild-card spot in the American League.
With just under eight weeks until the 2024 trade deadline, Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer is adopting a buyer’s mentality. In a conversation with The Athletic’s Patrick Mooney, Hoyer acknowledged the team’s poor performance in recent games but expressed optimism for improvement. He emphasized his continuous efforts to strengthen the team, specifically noting the need for more home-run power.
“You need to be able to homer at the right times,” said Hoyer. “And you need to be able to score in bunches. That’s something we haven’t done, especially early. … You got to put pressure on the opposing manager. You got to get into the bad part of the bullpen. We haven’t done a good enough job.”
The Cubs have hit 60 home runs this season, placing them in the middle of the league, but their recent performance has dipped with only 24 home runs in the past 30 days, ranking them 22nd in the majors. During this period, they have struggled offensively, ranking 29th in batting average (.216), 21st in on-base percentage (.299), and 28th in slugging percentage (.347). Their 23.7% strikeout rate is the sixth-highest in the league.
Cody Bellinger has been a standout performer recently, while Ian Happ has shown power despite a low average and on-base percentage. Conversely, Michael Busch has struggled with a .189 average and a high 37% strikeout rate, though he maintains a decent on-base percentage due to frequent walks.
Other players, such as Dansby Swanson and Nico Hoerner, have also faced challenges at the plate over the past month, though their strong defensive skills secure their spots in the lineup. Bellinger’s shift to first base to cover for Busch’s contact issues has created outfield gaps, with Seiya Suzuki and Pete Crow-Armstrong underperforming. Third baseman Christopher Morel has also struggled recently, and the catching duo of Yan Gomes and Miguel Amaya has been one of the league’s worst offensively, combining for a .176/.220/.261 slash line.
What the Cubs need to do
To strengthen their lineup, the Cubs might look to add players at third base, catcher, or designated hitter. A power-hitting third baseman with a good glove would be ideal, allowing Morel to focus on DH duties. However, such players are scarce, especially if the Rockies retain Ryan McMahon. The Astros’ Alex Bregman could be a target if Houston decides to sell, but this seems unlikely. Catchers like Danny Jansen or Elias Diaz might be available if the Blue Jays or Rockies decide to trade.
Bellinger’s versatility in playing all outfield positions and first base provides the Cubs with flexibility in acquiring a new hitter. If Busch’s struggles continue, he could be moved to Iowa, with Bellinger taking over first base and the Cubs pursuing an outfielder. Alternatively, if Busch rebounds, the Cubs could focus on acquiring an outfielder, knowing Bellinger can play any outfield position.
Regardless of their approach, the Cubs are expected to seek additional power before the trade deadline, addressing their urgent need for offensive improvement and various potential upgrade points on their roster.
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